Depends on the situation. Assuming 10/10/10 and both soloing, Herc would last wayy longer due to the way guts works when soloing. Cu alter would probably do more damage per turn. Ultimately, I think herc would eventually do more damage for the sheer survivability that comes with having 4 guts and a short cd evade compared to cu alter's 2 guts and better evade yes but an evade that would get consumed fast when soloing. Also, if he could reliable spam his np it would slow down his eventual death specially if he can stack defense ups.
In a team setting, you'd probably take cu alter for the extra damage. There's a good enough chance that hits would be distributed enough among the party that you would be able to use the evade at least twice. His np defense up would help more here too than in a solo situation slowing down his eventual demise again due to hits being more distributed. It's not that herc's survivability would be less here but more that it would be less necessary.
And as a backliner, last option in your party, the clear winner is herc. 2 evades from the skill is just not enough to beat out the 4 guts. 3 evades that fsn cu actually is as it's in a short enough cd.
If you put volumen hydrargyrum on him though Cu becomes far more roach like and can survive more potential turns than herc. I still think herc wins in solo situations but in team situations having the stacked invincibility on top of stacked evades which trigger after all 3 invincibilities have been used is amazing
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