Moon Goddess Bath vs Moonlight Fest-Bad math| ignore

So, question. If my math is right, based upon the drop rates for the expert mode, I will get an average of 15 rare dumplings.
On the guide it says use a +4 over the 100%. My setup will be two of the 3 stars and 2 of the 5 stars which will total 8. Using the an MLB Moonlight Fest i will get 11 plus the 15 average equals to 26 rare dumplings per run.
However, if I use the 100% Moon Goddess Bath, I will get a base of 30 rare dumplings plus my 8 from my own party will be 38 rare dumplings which is better than the recommended MLB Moonlight Fest.
Am I missing something or is this correct and I should be using Moon Goddess Bath with my setup?

UPDATE: I completely forgot its 11 per drop. my bad xD